Air forces around the world have undergone changes and reductions in recent years as defense budgets tighten and new technologies emerge. Some analysts have speculated whether this could lead to a large scale discontinuation of air forces in the future. There are arguments on both sides of this issue.
Background on Air Forces
Air forces emerged in the early 20th century as aircraft technology advanced during World War I. At first, air units were part of armies and navies. Over time, they became their own independent branches of the military with their own commands, doctrines and priorities. Air forces allowed nations to control the skies and conduct strategic bombing, close air support, airlift and other aerial missions.
The United States Air Force was formed in 1947 after being part of the Army. Other nations followed suit in establishing independent air forces or expanding their existing ones. During the Cold War, air power was seen as crucial for nuclear deterrence and conventional warfare. The Soviet Union, United States and others invested heavily in aircraft, pilots and air bases.
Causes of Air Force Reductions
Since the end of the Cold War in 1991, many air forces have gotten smaller for several reasons:
– Defense budget cuts after the collapse of the Soviet Union and reduced tensions. With the major threat gone, governments scaled back spending.
– High operation and maintenance costs of military aircraft. Operating complex modern jets requires extensive resources for fuel, spare parts, personnel training and bases.
– Emergence of new threats like terrorism where air power is less relevant. Focus has shifted more to special forces.
– Development of advanced missiles and drones. Aircraft may be more vulnerable and less necessary with long-range precision weapons.
– Rising personnel costs as air forces compete for talent. Pilots and technicians require high salaries.
As a result, most air forces today are smaller and more streamlined than during the Cold War. They operate fewer types of aircraft with smaller formations. There is more emphasis on multirole platforms rather than specialized aircraft.
For example, in 1990 the United States Air Force had over 6,000 total aircraft. Today it has around 5,000. Many other countries followed a similar drawdown pattern after the Cold War ended.
Arguments That Air Forces Are Not Necessary
Some analysts contend that air forces are outdated concepts and not needed in the 21st century due to:
– Missiles and drones negating manned aircraft advantages: Precision guided missiles fired from the ground, ships or unmanned aerial vehicles can strike targets hundreds of miles away. They are cheaper and safer than flying crewed bombers or fighters in hostile airspace. Stealth drones can penetrate enemy defenses better.
– Airspace denial negating air superiority: Developments like advanced surface-to-air missiles, cyber weapons and electronic warfare may make gaining air superiority much harder against major powers. Aircraft would struggle to freely operate.
– Niche capabilities via joint operations: Rather than independent air forces, advanced capabilities like stealth planes, bombers and transports could be jointly operated in smaller numbers by the army, navy or joint commands as needed.
– Saving money for new technologies: Eliminating bureaucratic air forces could free up resources for innovation in areas like robotics, cyber warfare and space.
– No state on state wars requiring large air forces: With wars today involving non-state actors like terrorists, large air forces designed to defeat adversaries like Russia or China may not be relevant.
Given these points, some believe air forces are relics of the past that modern militaries should abandon. Resources could be directed elsewhere for greater impact.
Arguments for Retaining Air Forces
However, there are strong counterarguments in favor of air forces:
– Versatility of manned aircraft: While missiles and drones have advantages, crewed planes and helicopters can be reused for multiple types of missions. They provide sustained presence and respond flexibly as situations change.
– Challenging airspace denial: Stealth aircraft, electronic warfare, suppression of enemy air defenses and advanced tactics can still overcome anti-access/area denial capabilities. Air superiority will remain crucial.
– Independent expertise needed: Managing complex air operations requires dedicated leadership and staff. An independent air force provides focus on airpower that would be diluted in other branches.
– Still vital for major warfare: Against near-peer adversaries, air power provides critical strikes, air mobility, intelligence and other support. Air forces must prepare for high intensity conflict even if not actively engaged in it.
– Global reach enabling security: Bases worldwide with long range aircraft provide quick access to remote regions. This enables everything from disaster relief to embassy evacuation to shows of force.
While air forces must evolve and right-size for today’s environment, they still appear to offer invaluable capabilities. A wholesale move to abandon air forces appears excessively risky given the unpredictable nature of future conflicts.
Quantitative Analysis of Global Air Forces
To assess whether air forces are actually shrinking significantly, it is helpful to examine the data on countries’ air force sizes. The following table shows numbers of military aircraft in the ten largest air forces globally based on FlightGlobal 2023 data:
| Country | Aircraft |
|---|---|
| United States | 13379 |
| Russia | 4062 |
| China | 3010 |
| India | 2123 |
| France | 1156 |
| Japan | 970 |
| Italy | 857 |
| Egypt | 836 |
| Saudi Arabia | 829 |
| Iran | 783 |
While the United States air force is smaller than its Cold War peak, it still dwarfs all others with over 13,000 military aircraft in service. Russia, China and other major powers also maintain large fleets. The top ten air forces alone account for over 27,000 total aircraft – a huge figure.
When examining air forces globally, there is no major decline evident. The data shows that airpower remains a high priority for militaries even after the Cold War. While there is some downsizing, there are no signs of wholesale abandonment of air forces. Claims that air forces are disappearing appear exaggerated based on this empirical evidence.
New Missions and Technologies
Rather than disappearing, air forces are adapting to perform new missions using advanced technologies:
– Expanding use of attack and reconnaissance drones. Examples include the US MQ-9 Reaper. Drones give extended flight time for surveillance and strikes.
– Upgrading major aircraft like fighters and bombers with new radars, sensors and weapons to increase lethality such as 5th generation stealth jets.
– Bolstering special mission planes like airborne early warning, electronic warfare, and intelligence/surveillance/reconnaissance (ISR) aircraft that enable informed battle network centric warfare and target tracking.
– Exploring cyber warfare capabilities from the air such as jamming opponent communications and radar sites to enable operations.
– Increasing focus on space integration, including launch support, satellite control, and potential space interception or strike missions in the future.
– Using air mobility assets like transports and tankers to support flexible special forces deployments and sustainment.
– Countering nuclear and ballistic missile proliferation through bombers, missiles and future airborne laser systems.
Rather than moving to abolish air forces, the trend is toward evolving them to take advantage of cutting edge technologies and play enhanced roles.
Conclusion
In conclusion, while air forces globally have seen some reductions since the Cold War, evidence does not point to them disappearing outright any time soon. Manned aircraft still offer important versatility, resistance to air denial can overcome vulnerabilities, expertise consolidation in separate branches remains optimal, and major war preparation necessitates air power.
Ongoing modernization with drones, stealth, electronic warfare, and emerging technologies also keeps air forces relevant. Big data analysis shows top national air forces are still sizable and potent. While adaptation to new missions like space integration is critical, airpower remains a vital tool no major military is abandoning completely. Rather than discontinuing, air forces are adapting with new technologies to provide continued strategic influence.